Putin’s calculus

First published in Deccan Herald

Hung or lost wars that result in economic bankruptcy have led, time and again, to regime change — from the Greeks stretching themselves too thin to the East, to more recently the British Empire, Hitler’s Germany, and well, the Soviet Union… The economics that backed Putin’s decision to go to war is more obvious than, say, the calculus of Hitler’s Germany. For one, Russia is one of the large producers of fossil fuels, contributing 11% of the world’s oil… Is Putin banking on the West to blink on the altar of self-preservation and let Russia off the hook? It is possible when the rhetoric dies down and new lines are drawn. It is perhaps the reason why everyone went out on a limb to play down Biden’s statement.

This is the opening of the piece. The full article is on Deccan Herald.